Commons Sense

House of Commons · Ministers' Questions

Welfare Budget

Monday 12 October 2026 · 4 questions

Summarised by AI from the official record, so it can contain mistakes.

Read the full transcript on Parliament.uk

At a glance

Answered 2 Partly answered 2 Not answered 0

Key points

  • Office for Budget Responsibility forecasted UK welfare spending to be about 390 billion by 2029-30.
  • Spending on working-age adults' and children's welfare is forecast to be 4.9% of GDP at the end of the current Parliament.
  • Minister agrees that tailored support for disabled people could reduce welfare bills and aid those who wish to work.

Topics (select to filter)

Questions & Answers

Q1 John Lamont Con Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Benefits & Welfare
Context

The question follows the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast on welfare spending, which was published in March and is due to be updated in the upcoming Budget.

Question

What estimate has been made of what the total welfare budget will be at the end of this Parliament.

Answer from Stephen Timms

In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its official forecast, predicting that at the end of the current Parliament, in 2029-30, UK welfare spending will be about £390 billion. The OBR will update that forecast in the Budget, which will take place on Wednesday fortnight.

Answered

Not addressed: null

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Q2 John Lamont Con Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Economy Community Security Benefits & Welfare
Context

Previous question from John Lamont about the growth of the benefits bill and the Prime Minister's statement on national security and social security.

Question

The Minister has just confirmed that the benefits bill will continue to grow. He also seems to have confirmed the Prime Minister's position that national security cannot come at the expense of social security. Is that correct?

Answer from Stephen Timms

Spending on working-age adults' and children's welfare is forecast to be 4.9% of GDP at the end of the current Parliament, as it is now. Overall welfare spending is forecast to rise by less than half as much in this Parliament as in the last, by just over 0.3 percentage points by 2030-31 compared with 0.7 percentage points in the last Parliament. This Government are putting right the problems that they inherited.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The questioner's inference about the Prime Minister's position was not directly addressed.

How: Reframed The Question To Focus On Spending Projections Rather Than The Prime Minister'S Statement

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Q3 Deirdre Costigan
Benefits & Welfare
Context

A recent report from the Good Growth Foundation indicated that 50% of disability claimants would prefer tailored support such as employment assistance, therapy, and physical aids over financial benefits.

Question

According to a recent report, 50% of disability claimants would swap up to £1,000 of benefits for help such as employment support, therapy and physical aids. Does the Minister agree that giving disabled people tailored support could both reduce the welfare bill and stop those who want to work being written off by the system?

Answer from Stephen Timms

I do agree with my hon. Friend, and, as she has said, we inherited a system that wrote people off. We are pleased with the early results emerging from our Connect to Work programme, which is providing exactly that kind of tailored support for disabled people and others faced with complex barriers to work. We recently published the second set of quarterly outcome statistics, and the news is very encouraging.

Answered

Not addressed: null

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Q4 Joe Robertson
Economy Benefits & Welfare
Context

A recent report by Professor Peter Fonagy indicated a sixfold increase in the number of children with ADHD between the ages of six and 11.

Question

The number of children between the ages of six and 11 with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder has grown sixfold, which means that in the years ahead there will be a surge in the number of applications for personal independence payment as children become adults. Does the Minister agree that it is time to end a cash payments benefit system for people with more minor conditions, and ensure that those with genuine needs receive the therapeutic support that will enable them to learn, work and contribute to the economy?

Answer from Stephen Timms

The hon. Gentleman will have seen Professor Peter Fonagy's recent report about the incidence of ADHD, autism and other conditions. I am co-chairing a review of PIP which is looking into how we can ensure that the system meets the very real needs of many disabled people, and that the benefit is on a sustainable financial footing for the future. The report of my review will be published before the end of the year.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The specific proposal to end the cash payment system for minor conditions was not directly addressed.

How: Redirected To A Review Of Pip, Rather Than Directly Answering The Question

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