Commons Sense

House of Commons · Ministers' Questions

Employment Rate: OBR Forecast

Monday 18 December 2023 · 5 questions

Summarised by AI from the official record, so it can contain mistakes.

Read the full transcript on Parliament.uk

At a glance

Answered 0 Partly answered 5 Not answered 0

Key points

  • The Government are committed to increasing employment, with payroll employment at a near record high of 30.2 million.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that the Government's back to work plan will see 30,000 more people in work over the forecast period.
  • The OBR also forecasts that 371,000 fewer people will be on long-term sickness and disability benefits due to Government reforms.

Topics (select to filter)

Questions & Answers

Q1 Judith Cummins Lab Bradford South
Employment
Context

The question stems from the Office for Budget Responsibility's economic and fiscal outlook published in November 2023, which included employment forecasts.

Question

What assessment has been made of the potential implications for government policies regarding the OBR's employment rate forecast?

Answer from Mel Stride

The Government are committed to increasing employment. Payroll employment is at a near record high of 30.2 million, which is up 1.2 million on the pre-pandemic level. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that our back to work plan will see 30,000 more people in work over the forecast period.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The question asked about implications of the OBR's forecast on government policies, but Mel Stride provided general employment statistics and did not address how the forecast impacts current policies specifically.

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Q2 Chris Elmore Lab Bridgend
Economy Benefits & Welfare
Context

The OBR revealed in the autumn statement that more than 600,000 additional people will be on health and disability benefits by 2028-29 under the current government.

Question

After more than 13 years of this Conservative Government, why does it claim to be a back to work Budget when the OBR forecasts that an extra 600,000 people will be on health and disability benefits by 2028-29?

Answer from Mel Stride

I cannot agree with that. In fact, I point the hon. Gentleman to the figure of 371,000, which is the number of people fewer the OBR forecasts will be on those very long-term sickness and disability benefits because of the reforms that this Government are bringing in.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The question specifically challenged the claim about 600,000 additional people on health and disability benefits by 2028-29. Mel Stride focused on a different figure of 371,000, avoiding direct confrontation with the original statistics.

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Q3 Judith Cummins Lab Bradford South
Employment Benefits & Welfare
Context

Office for National Statistics figures showed that 6.6% of people of working age in Bradford are claiming out-of-work benefits, the highest rate in the Leeds city region.

Question

Considering ONS data showing a high rate of out-of-work benefit claims in Bradford South, does the Secretary of State believe the Government's back to work plan is effective for constituents there?

Answer from Mel Stride

The back to work plan has billions of pounds-worth of investment behind it, including the £3.5 billion announced by the Chancellor in the spring Budget. Such things as extending restart, bringing forward mandatory placements after 18 months to ensure that people get into work and doubling universal support are important measures that will see increased numbers in work.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The question asked for an assessment on effectiveness specifically in Bradford South. Mel Stride provided a general overview of the back to work plan without addressing its specific impact or success rate in Bradford.

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Q4 Alison McGovern Lab Birkenhead
Employment
Context

The OBR has published its economic and fiscal outlook, including forecasts on the employment rate.

Question

After hearing what the Secretary of State believes about employment due to his policies, does the OBR's forecast show an increase or decrease in the employment rate compared with today for 2024-25?

Answer from Mel Stride

I have already shared the figures with the House, which are that payroll employment is at a near historic high and unemployment is at a near historic low. As the hon. Lady will know, we have never had a Labour Government leave office with unemployment lower at the end of their term than when they started.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The question specifically asked about the OBR's forecast on employment rate for 2024-25. Mel Stride provided general employment statistics without addressing the specific OBR forecast mentioned in the question.

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Q5 Alison McGovern Lab Birkenhead
Economy Employment
Context

The government has been criticized for its economic policies, with OBR forecasts suggesting negative impacts on the employment rate in the near future.

Question

Given that after 13 years of Conservative rule there is nothing to be proud of, if what the Secretary of State said was true about his policies working, why does OBR forecast a decline in the employment rate not just next year but also the following year?

Answer from Mel Stride

We will continue to bear down on the level of unemployment. As the hon. Lady knows, economic inactivity has reduced, and we have 300,000 fewer people in economic inactivity than at the peak during the pandemic.

Partly answered

Not addressed: The question directly asked about OBR forecasts predicting declines in employment rates. Mel Stride provided general statements on unemployment statistics without addressing the specific forecast issues raised by the questioner.

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